Robertson Vineyards

Trend Following and Momentum

Investment Philosophy

Our philosophy is grounded in the belief that markets exhibit persistent behavioral inefficiencies that can be systematically identified, measured, and harnessed. Central to this approach is a disciplined focus on trend following and momentum, two complementary frameworks that seek to capture the tendency of asset prices to move directionally over time.

CORE PRINCIPLES

Price is the Ultimate Arbiter
We view price as the most distilled and objective expression of all known—and often unknown—information. Instead of forecasting, we respond to what the market is already demonstrating. When price exhibits sustain strength or weakness, it often signals underlying forces that may continue longer than conventional analysis expects.

Markets Trend More Often than Expected
Across asset classes and time horizons, markets frequently move in persistent trends driven by macroeconomic cycles, shifts in risk appetite, structural flows, and human behavior. Trend following seeks to participate in these moves while maintaining risk management structures that limit exposure when trends reverse.

Momentum Reflects Behavioral Biases
Momentum exists because investors underreact to new information and then overreact in herding behaviors. By systematically identifying assets demonstrating relative or absolute strength, we position portfolios to participate in ongoing leadership rather than relying on valuation-based predictions or mean-reversion assumptions that may take years to materialize.

Systematic, Rules-Based Execution
Emotion and bias are the enemy of consistency. We emphasize rules-driven models to define entry, exit, and position-sizing decisions—reducing the influence of fear, overconfidence, or narrative-driven decision-making. Discretion is applied only to refine risk parameters, not to override systematic evidence.